Mr Sikorski Goes to Washington

Dziennik reports that Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski will meet Condoleezza Rice in Washington today to talk missile defence. More importantly, Mr. Sikorski will chat with presidential hopefuls John McCain and Barack Obama by phone. Ms. Rice will go to Prague to seal the deal with the Czechs on her way to Sofia and Tbilisi that begins this week.

On Friday, PM Tusk rejected the US offer in talks with VP Cheney. President Kaczyński and Prime Minister Tusk are at opposite ends. Someone close to the PM's office said "The atmosphere was fatal. On one side was the president and his people and on the other the prime minister confronted with his subordinates. 'Mr. President, you should have more confidence in the minister of foreign affairs' was said after Kaczyński criticized Sikorski. 'He is not my minister of foreign affairs,' responded the president."

According to Republican adviser and historian Edward Lutwak, "the government of the Republic of Poland by rejecting the US offer forfeited a valuable partner that would protect it against Russia. It is an elementary mistake." Such talk certainly convince Moscow that the shield is directed towards them.

***

I am disappointed with reporting by AFP on the missile defense story and its interpretation of polling figures:

Polish opposition to hosting part of a US missile defence shield in the former communist country is weakening, according to the latest poll published on Saturday. Back at the end of February a survey suggested that 52 percent of Poles opposed the plans, however this new study -- a little over three months later -- found that only 46 percent disapproved. The project, which would see 10 interceptor missiles based in Poland and a radar facility in the neighboring Czech Republic, was supported by 42 percent of people in the poll, published by the Gazeta Wyborcza daily. Only 33 percent backed the idea back in February's survey...

...Although Russia was initially strongly opposed to having the missile shield on its doorstep, the Kremlin has softened its line in recent months and appears to be focusing on getting security guarantees.

Now this is what Dziennik reports:

46 percent of Poles do not want the U.S. anti-missile shield. The majority of us are afraid that the Americans will not modernize our troops and the installation would deteriorate relations with Russia. Nearly three-quarters surveyed by PBS believe that [Poland] should take care of contacts with the European Union above America. 42% of Poles are for the shield and 42% [sic] are against it. 68% do not believe that the United States will equip our army. The survey shows that Poles believe that the shield would deteriorate our position in the world. Poles are also more afraid that the U.S. missile defence shield will deteriorate relations with Russia than become the target of a terrorist attack. In addition, only 16% of Poles consider that we should put contacts with the US in the first place. Most important should be good relations with the European Union and Russia.

It appears that Dziennik made a typo by writing in the first paragraph that 46% were against, then in the second that 42% were against. But this may be more excusable than AFP's sloppy reporting.

First, AFP describes Poland as a former communist country. Would they run a story on South Africa and mention its former colonial status? Secondly, they write that only 46% are against the shield. If anything, public opinion is divided on the issue nearly fifty-fifty. Third, they are stating that public opinion for the MD has improved based on this latest PBS poll to a Gazeta Wyborcza poll taken in February. They also fail to mention that a CBOS poll taken earlier this month indicates that public opinion against the missile shield is at 60%. Fourth, no comment on the idea that Russia is softening its position on MD in Poland. I am at a loss where they came up with that one.

I guess that the devil is in the details, and that 60% statistics are made up on the spot 35% of the time.

Death Squeeze and the Pickle Index

Going through the archives, I found this bizarre graphic of a skeleton squeezing the globe into a barrel of oil from the Polish paper Gazeta Finansowa from 2-8 November. The caption read:

Brent crude in New York costs $92. In Poland, the result of this high rise of oil prices helped strengthened the złoty to 2.51 on $1.

Ah, those were the good old days of cheap oil and the cheap złoty. Since this article was published, the Polish currency has strengthened 16% against the dollar. Crude has risen over 36% to $145. On top of that, inflation has hit mostly food prices.

The Economist has the Big Mac Index which "seeks to make exchange-rate theory more digestible." But it doesn't take into account inflation compounded by the bad luck of getting paid in dollars.

So, there is the Pickle Index, a quick way to find out how the economy is doing relative to the US dollar based on a system using a nice 900 ml jar of Krakus ogórki. For example, when I first arrived in Warsaw in late September, a jar of pickles cost 4.60 złoty; the exchange rate was 2.85 złoty to the dollar. Today, that same jar cost 5.79 złoty; the exchange rate is now at 2.11 złoty to the greenback. In dollar terms, that pickle jar is 41% more expensive for an American scholar wanting to eat pickled cucumbers.

Poland's Yo-Yo Iran Policy

Today's Rzeczpospolita cites a Tehran Times claiming that PGNiG and Iranian Offshore Oil Company are "close" to securing LNG contracts in Iran's Lavan gas field. According to IOOC's director Mahmoud Zirakchian Zadeh, the Poles have returned to the table hoping to invest in Lavan to secure an LNG contract necessary to make the proposed Świnoujście LNG terminal a reality. The Polish daily goes on to say:

"PGNiG is really interested in acquiring deposits in Iran, and the Lavan field is very promising. Its resources are estimated at 140 billion cubic meters. In comparison, gas experts estimate that Polish deposits contain from 110 to 130 billion cubic meters. Therefore, the possibility of exploitation of a subdivision in Lavan that would bring 5 or 10 billion cubic meters of gas to Poland would be important ... People interviewed say that negotiations with the Iranian side have been extremely difficult."

Talks are about to get even tougher. Earlier this month, the US and EU issued a fresh round of sanctions on Iran in the form of travel bans at the US-EU Summit. The US also continued its pressure on EU companies to prevent them from doing business with Iranian companies.

Polish policy on securing Iranian energy contracts has been erratic. Back in February, a framework agreement was signed between Polish gas monopoly PGNiG and IOOC. Iranian ISNA news agency claimed that the Polish side was "ready to invest $1 billion" to secure gas. A PGNiG spokesman denied that his company was ready to commit to a specific amount.

Then, Minister of Economy Waldemar Pawlak called the plan of the 85% state-owned PGNiG "a little risky." By March, a new PGNiG board was appointed, and kept the Iranian option suspiciously quiet. The Tusk government, nor the opposition, hailed Polish-Iranian talks as a breakthrough on guaranteeing gas security from Russia -- a major foreign and security policy goal. Meanwhile, US-Polish negotiations to build a missile defense system (to block none other than potentially nuke-tipped Iranian Shabad missiles) took precedence over energy security issues.

Talks on constructing the missile shield on Polish soil are not going for the Americans as planned. Polskie Radio reports that current talks are even in a state of "gridlock." According to Minister of Defense Klich, "Poland is becoming as important for the US in this region as Pakistan in Central Asia or Egypt in the Middle East. We expect to be equally treated." Poland wants tens of millions of dollars in military aid, "not a specially excessive amount," according to Klich.

Suddenly, Poland's Iran option is now once again becoming plausible. Weeks ago, the AP and other media sources reported that the US was now tapping Lithuania on the shoulder to host the MD system if Polish talks turn sour.

Signing a contract with the Iranians at the expense of US plans to install a MD system would raise further suspicions in Moscow. Already annoyed by the "use of European solidarity to promote the interests of separate members," as voiced by President Medvedev at this week's EU-Russia Summit, Russia would get the message that Gazprom is a greater threat to Poland than Iranian nukes.

If Polish policy seems erratic, it is taking a cue from its fellow NATO allies. While trying to convince Europe not to sign contracts with state-run Iranian energy companies, the US is simultaneously waging a campaign to convince NATO allies that Russia is the main threat to the EU's energy security. An emerging example of this policy was presented earlier this month at the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations by Zeyno Baran, who warned of Russia's growing monopoly. She went on, however, to say:

European energy security and supply diversification as a concept is important, but this is not an area where direct US involvement is necessary or appropriate [...] If the US wants non-Russian pipelines such as Nabucco and TGI to become pipelines for Caspian gas transport to Europe, then Washington needs to provide political support to encourage exploration and development. It is important to recognize that US vision for these two pipelines, especially Nabucco, is not the same as that of Brussels—hence the lack of political backing from the EU.

Political support may not be enough. Everything depends on a long chain of actors -- from the potential reserves of post-totalitarian Turkmenistan, to an increasingly unstable Georgia, to a Ukrainian government still stalling on signing WTO legislation allowing it to move forward on a FTA with the EU. While Baran admits that "Iranian gas for Nabucco is still occasionally discussed, especially by Austria, but until relations with Iran settle down, it is all but pointless to even discuss this option," she does not consider it pointless to cross fingers, hoping that "Iraqi gas is important to maintain and build increased momentum for Nabucco."

The EU is counting on bcms, and Iran has them to the dismay of countries like Poland seeking to diversify from Russia. While Iran doesn't produce LNG, it could supply Austria's OMV, Germany's E.On Ruhrgas, and Gaz de France.

Back in August, Under Secretary of State Nicholas Burns presented the US position on Iran:

Well, our policy, the U.S. Government's policy, is that countries should not be stimulating their companies to be involved in oil and gas investment in Iran. It's inconsistent with Security Council resolutions and the spirit of those resolutions. It sends a conflicting message to the Iranian Government itself and we've made that clear to all of our friends in Europe, in the Middle East and in Asia. It's also true there is national -- there are natural gas options and oil options for countries that are in Europe or the Middle East. Turkmenistan is one, Kazakhstan is a second. It's not as if Iran is the only country in the world that produces natural gas. It's not ... We're not going to be successful in diplomacy if we send conflicting messages.

Keeping the US position in mind, to say that Iran is not the only country in the world that has gas is a bit like saying that Saudi Arabia is not the only country that produces crude. While this is true, it does not quite match reality. Perceptions of "security" and "dependency" vary between countries. For now, the gap is widening between the US and Poland on these fundamental issues.

Dizzy With Success

As expected, Viktor Zubkov became Chairman of Gazprom at last Friday's annual meeting of shareholders. In the runup to the meeting, Gazprom published overtly optimistic information on this year's expected financial results, as well as its program through 2020.

Thanks to higher gas prices on European consumers, Gazprom's export revenue is expected to hit $71.6 billion by the end of this year, nearly double the $44.8 billion in revenues in 2007. Customers in the EU are expected to pay $400 per thousand cubic meter, up from the current rate of $273.

Gazprom’s plans to increase gas production to 650–670 bcm by 2020 seem far-fetched. Last year, output decreased by 1.3 percent, officially due to a warm winter and decrease of domestic demand. The real reason, many European observers fear is years of inadequate investment in the extraction sector. The projected investment programme for 2009–2020 (US$ 340–420 billion) allocates around 30 percent of investment spending on the development of new fields including Shtokman and Yamal.

At the end of the day, Gazprom seems unlikely to carry out its plans without the broader involvement of foreign partners. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank told investors that Gazprom's market capitalization should reach $710 billion because rising domestic natural gas prices. "In three or four years a market will be formed in Russia that will be twice as large in terms of revenue as the traditional European market,'' said Aleksei Miller at a shareholder's meeting (Bloomberg, 27 June).

Public Opinion of Missile Shield, pt. 2

Polish public opinion institute CBOS released new polls on public support for the US missile defence shield in Poland. 60% are against the shield, while 26% still support it.

"According to CBOS, almost the same number of supporters and opponents of the MD placement are supporters of [the right-wing] PiS party. Others surveyed are largely opposed to such a commitment to defend this system. The most determined opposition to the installation is expressed by those politically passive and who do not participate in elections. In contrast, the most reluctant politically-active voters sympathize with [the leftist] LiD party."

According to this information, public opinion for the MD system has slided since February (see here).

'Strategy of Love'

Der Spiegel: After his election victory last fall, Tusk rescued his fellow Poles from the duo's boorish collaboration. Since then, Tusk's Civic Platform periodically achieves approval ratings above 50 percent, while the Kaczynski twins' Law and Justice Party has plunged to just above 25 percent. First it was the media, and now Tusk himself has dubbed his softer approach his "strategy of love."

After more than half a year of his permanent smile, the Poles finally want Tusk to actually do something. Even though he and his liberal Civic Platform enjoy a stable coalition with the Polish Peasants' Party (PSL), and can boast a brilliant 5 percent growth rate, the prime minister has yet to launch into any of the much-needed reforms. In a new poll, 79 percent of respondents could not name any concrete achievements by the government in its first few months. "Tusk has to abandon the politics of smiles, otherwise he'll be hated one day," says sociologist Jadwiga Staniszkis.

And this TOL piece asks what everyone else has been asking for the past few months, including:

Hopes of implementing public-sector reforms have already been thwarted by ongoing labor unrest by key workers, notably teachers and medical staff, over wages and pension rights. As budgetary pressures increase, so too will the potential for labor unrest among those who believe that government sees the public sector as nothing more than an annoying relic of the communist past.

On the walk home today a small but noisy picket demonstrated in front of the Ministry of Health. They carried signs such as "We look after all, but no one looks after us."

And there's more. The Economist reckons:

On other fronts, the government's record is weaker. It nibbles at problems, sometimes usefully, more often ineffectually. It exudes an atmosphere of mild chaos, coupled with an unhealthy appetite for the spoils of power. Mr Tusk is charming and decent but not decisive. He has yet to be tested by a big crisis.

Notice a trend? Maybe the Tusk government does not...

Poland = Missouri

GDP compared to US states...

R.I.P. The eXile 1997-2008

The paper's demise, and the investors' flight, was sparked by a visit on June 6 by inspectors from the Federal Service for Mass Media, Telecommunications, and the Protection of Cultural Heritage.

[Editor Mark] Ames -- whose documentary films have appeared on "EuroNews" and on the Kremlin-controlled English-language television station "Russia Today" -- says the inspectors took three issues of the paper for analysis to determine whether it violated legislation prohibiting the promotion of extremism, pornography, or narcotics. The inspectors were due to complete their analysis by June 11, but by that time the paper's backers had already backed out, dooming it to discontinue publication.

16 Tons

owe my soul to the company store.



Kafkaesque.



noisy shutterspeed.



Praha hlavní nádraží.

Ukraine Energy Efficiency

A friend mailed me an article from a copy of Dzerkalo Tyzhnia from 8 March 2008. In the piece, "Energy Efficiency as an Alternative to Gas Supply Diversification," Oleksandr Hudyma argues that energy efficiency is the number one way to solve Ukraine's energy dilemma. Read here in Ukrainian, and here in Russian. Highlights:

Ukraine's energy GDP is 2.6 times the average level of energy GDP energy in the world. The reason - excessive consumption in sectors of the economy (metallurgy, chemical and other industries). The level of energy security in the state, which is defined by the unit of primary energy consumption per person, unfortunately, does not characterized by energy efficiency. In Ukraine, scarce energy resources were consumed wastefully. Energy waste is already embedded in the minds of Ukrainians and to remedy the situation would require extraordinary effort. The trends and dynamics of these stark figures must constantly be under the appropriate attention and care of society and be managed.

Polish-Peruvian Ties Heat Up

Was it the succulent roasted chicken? Or the full-bodied Chilean reds? The stunning views of Macchu Picchu? Maybe it was the funny itchy hats... PM Donald Tusk will have a lot to remember when he returns from his state visit to South America for a EU-Latin America Summit, which will discuss climate change and, er... other matters.

The PM got flack from Dziennik for going on an "expensive vacation," which may cost Polish taxpayers 1.5 million złoty ($692,000). If you read the comments section people aren't happy.

"It is not a holiday. It is the Europe-South America Summit. […] The PM has also decided to take this opportunity to add two overdue visits to Chile and Argentina to his itinerary so that he does not have to make two more trips in the future," said a government spokesman on TOK FM.

Translated into diplomatic language, this means "Tusk will never go to South America ever again. So we booked the wine tour in the Atacama Valley."

Just to put it in perspective, total bilateral trade in 2006 with Peru stood at a measly $59 million. Poland actually runs a trade deficit with Peru... On the other hand, total trade stood at $323 million with Chile, $567 million with Argentina, and $775 million with Brazil (GUS).

What the press didn't report is that Tusk will make up for the trip by cost-cutting on his next foreign meeting. He'll invite President Georgi Parvanov to go bass fishing at a yet-to-be rented Mazurian lakehouse. The Bulgarian leader will take the pospieszni from Sofia and bring his own tent, just in case. Tusk will bring the sandwiches and a six-pack of iced-down Warkas.

In the meantime, Donald, pass the Casillero del Diablo.

Vanco, Vanquished

Back in October, I wrote a piece for Oxford Business Group hailing the "New Oil Frontier" of Ukraine. Houston-based Vanco Energy sealed a deal to explore in the Black Sea, a major step which would have shed some dependence from Russian imports. Yushchenko praised the deal as a step towards a less vulnerable energy relationship with Russia. While the 'orange' coalition refused to be born, investors were concerned that Tymoshenko would pull populist moves and destabilize the investment climate with reprivatizations and the like.

I wrote, "Tymoshenko has shown consistency in her energy policies and if she is awarded her previous job as prime minister, she is expected to investigate or revoke agreements signed during Yanukovych's tenure. Western energy investors should welcome her appointment. Tymoshenko is more likely to dismantle Gazprom-owned shadowy energy intermediaries operating in Ukraine than to stifle the activities of transparent and trusted foreign firms contributing to energy diversification."

Looking back, I must admit that I was completely wrong.

Tymoshenko did go after shadowy intermediaries as her first crusade as prime minister. Arguably, she won that battle. On Monday, Prime Minister Tymoshenko canceled Vanco's license, claiming that the company received too much area to explore and charging Vanco of making secret back-stabbing deals with Gazprom. Vanco says it will take its case to international arbitration.

Tymoshenko also insisted that Naftohaz take the lead in exploration. In April 2006 Vanco beat Ukrnafta (as well as ExxonMobil, Shell and Türkiye Petrolleri) by winning a production-sharing agreement. She is following the same policies of former Minister of Energy Yuri Boyko, who asserted that domestic state-run companies should take the lead in hydrocarbons exploration in Ukraine.

Tymoshenko's move spells trouble on many different levels.

1) The Black Sea is Ukraine's only hope for reducing dependency on Russian imports. The US Energy Information Agency estimates Ukraine's oil reserves at 395m barrels, while crude imports amount to 97.45m barrels per year, or 267,000 bpd in 2006. This means that Ukraine 's imports are 78% of total consumption. In October, Vanco representatives estimated that 1 billion barrels of oil could be discovered in the Prykerchenska Block, but more could be discovered. If Vanco uncovers seismic data that indicates that this amount of oil is present offshore, then Ukraine could theoretically be completely independent from Russian oil imports for at least 7-10 years. Under the PSA, the Ukrainian government would get 65% of revenues and taxes.

2) Energy security has taken a back seat to domestic infighting and the threat of the specter of Gazprom behind every deal. Tymoshenko blamed Yushchenko for giving too much to Vanco, even though the deal was officially signed during the Yanukovych government. The idea that Vanco -- the only US company to operate in Ukraine's oil industry (Cardinal sold off its Ukrainian assets in November) -- would sell out to Gazprom is puzzling. Let's pretend that Vanco plans to sell out to Gazprom, as Tymoshenko claims. Then, Ukraine's import dependency on Russia (in percentages) would remain exactly the same as it is today.

3) Ms. Tymoshenko asserts that state-run Naftohaz should take control of exploration, rather than an experienced foreign investor. Naftohaz lacks the expertise for deep water drilling, meaning that no oil from the Black Sea will reach Ukrainian industries without involvement of a foreign investor. Gazprom? No. Vanco? Yes, um, no. Naftohaz? YES... but no oil! Tymoshenko serves her political patrons more than serving to fulfill the energy security priorities of her country.

4) Forget about US investors lining up to enter Ukraine. Since the Orange Revolution, political changes have made the White House and State happy. But where are the investors? Tymoshenko's message to Vanco is similar to Russia's crackdown on foreign energy deals -- stay away from "strategic sectors," or else you'll end up in arbitrage, or worse...

5) Kiss future US support for Odessa-Brody goodbye. With Azerbaijan's ACG fields coming online, Kazakhstan's oil export capabilities getting pressed by the Russians, and $125 barrel oil, Odessa-Brody remains (remarkably) an option on the table. The Presidents of Poland, Ukraine, Lithuania, Georgia and Azerbaijan will meet in Kyiv next week for another round of energy talks to breathe life into Odessa-Brody. For years, US "support" has been all talk, no action. Condi pledged to send a delegation. If Ukraine can't let a US company work in the Black Sea, then why should the US lift a finger to help Ukraine get a billion dollar pipeline extended to Poland?

***


Another Orange Revolution? ;)

Don Gazputin and the Family

Is a Russia-led gas cartel in the works? Many say the conditions are right for it and it is a possibility. Others seem to be losing sleep over it, as outlined in Alex Petersen's recent piece:

Unlike the current cartel for oil – troublesome enough for Western gasoline consumers – a gas OPEC would not just fix prices and restrict supply around the world. As natural gas is not traded in a global market, as oil is, a cartel among the world's major gas producers would also mean control over key supply routes – major pipelines that can literally be shut off should cartel members deem it in their interest...

A particular and real danger is the possibility that Moscow might convince Tehran to form the second major pillar on which a gas OPEC could stand. Such a prospect presents a strategic challenge to the West, not only because it would put a chokehold on essential energy supplies, but because a price-setting gas cartel would give a major boost to the development of Iran's nuclear program. Together, Moscow and Tehran control half of the world's natural gas reserves.

Others are unshaken. I found a piece from Energy Business Review from back in July 2005 that paints a different brush:

Despite its dominance of the world gas markets through its reserve and production levels, the GECF is far from being a dominant or influential force in gas pricing. Developing, agreeing on and implementing a gas price formula delinked from oil has shown little sign of progress despite significant debate and discussion over the past few years. With the various proposals still under discussion, there are few indications that an agreement will be reached, let alone implemented, in the short term. Instead the GECF is likely to continue to serve a role as a debating forum for its members and will seek to promote their interests, particularly with regard to market liberalization. Even if the GECF does evolve itself into a more structured and organized grouping, its ability to radically influence the gas markets will be curtailed by the wide-ranging, and sometimes conflicting, positions, viewpoints and agendas of its membership.

The reasons presented are:

1) Differing agendas and difficulties in reaching consensus of member countries
2) The disparate nature of the membership in terms of reserves
3) The preference for existing long term contracts
4) Gas is not a global market [yet].
5) Difficulties in allocating production quotas
6) The threat of international anti-cartel laws

Iran tempted Russia in February 2007 with a positive response to join the 'gas OPEC'. Iran has the world's second largest resources, but nowhere near the production. As of this decade, the gas giant became a net importer of gas. Not only that, Iran does not export very much gas to Europe. An 'energy Jihad' would be waged against whom exactly? Qatar, which is the largest global exporter of LNG, operates quite differently from Gazprom which is tethered to Europe by the Ukrainian Gas Transit System.

Such a plan for a gas cartel, which would involve a number of countries, would have to be based on economics not Russia's regional political agenda. Aleksandr Medvedev threatened, er... proposed to create a 'gas OPEC' in 2006 after the EU stated its ambitions to create a unified energy policy that "spoke with one voice" on energy policy. Also Russia loves bilateral deals -- with Italy, Germany, Algeria.

Victory Day

Bigmir.net reports:

Today in Crimea began the action "In every window a Russian flag." The action celebrating the 63rd anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War was carried out by organizers of Russian cooperation, who show support of society's unification with Russian friendship...

The head of the Russian Union of Friendship Nadezhda Polyakova: "In every city this action will be carried out on this famous date. Included in the action is the celebration of the 225 year anniversary of Sevastopol..."

Two-thirds of Ukrainians think that Victory Day is a great holiday, while in the Western regions every fifth citizen does not think as such.

Is this an "action" or a "provocation?"

One snarky commentator commented: "The fascists don't want to celebrate Victory Day. For them it was Kaput Day!"

Well, in Poland no one celebrates Victory Day. And they certainly weren't and aren't fascists. You wouldn't celebrate if you found out that the "liberating" Red Army victors watched your city burn to the ground from the eastern banks of the Vistula while they waited patiently...

Meanwhile, Putin doesn't get the fact that western military analysts recognize that showmanship and theatrics of the "impressive display of Russia's military strength" on Red Square today is hollow.

Pavel Felgenhauer in EDM writes: "he combat equipment that was moved through Red Square is old Soviet stock produced or designed in the 1980s. The government news agency RIA-Novosti was wrong in reporting that the new Topol-M (SS-27) mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles rolled through Moscow on Monday. The SS-27 carrier vehicle has 16 wheels, while the older Topol SS-25 ICBM has 14. The 14-wheel SS-25 carriers can clearly be seen in television footage of the May 5 rehearsal."

The USSR anthem is back, the weapons are rolled down Red Square, but the show is strictly for domestic consumption.

Hairy/Bald Algorithm

Last year, I posted that the next Russian president would be hairy. It turns out that the alternation of hairy/bald Russian leaders turned out to be true once again (thanks Neeka for the picture link, via tumbochka on ZhZh!)

According to the "experts," Putin will not run for a third term. EDM quotes First Deputy General Director of the Center for Political Technology Boris Makarenko: “I do not exclude the possibility that the period of the presidential term … might be extended, but I am skeptical about this. Moreover, an increase in the [presidential] term from four to five years is insignificant, and seven years is too little for a good president and too much for a bad one. As to the question of who will become president in 2012, today neither Medvedev nor Putin can answer that. They themselves want to see how things go, but it is unlikely that an opponent of the current authorities will become the next Russian President. I rule out the possibility of Putin’s return to the post of president in 2012.”

Meanwhile the reaction in Poland is, well of course, reactionary. Gazeta Wyborcza's front page was emblazoned with the headline "New Tsar Already in the Kremlin." A snippet:

"It was a grand television show. Several cameras tracked every move of Medvedev during yesterday's ceremony in the Kremlin [...] Will he be a good tsar ready to move on the side of democracy? Will he for ever turn to the autocratic shadow of Vladimir Putin?"

None of this matters. Putin got his old job back. Moments ago, Putin became prime minister of the Russian Federation, securing 392 out of 450 votes in the Duma.

From the Mouth of Ducks

NPR just ran a story about the notable quips and aphorisms of outgoing...er, incoming, Russian leader Vladimir Putin. These are quite famous by now, and we hope more is to come. In my own course of research last week I discovered that Polish politicians are often just as silver-tongued, especially the "Terrible Twins," the Brothers Kaczynski for their mix of populism, nationalism, gay-bashing and Teutonophobia:

Passerby: "You've changed the party, you've run away like rats."
Lech Kaczyński: "Sir, piss off Sir! That's what I'll say to you."
Passerby: "'Piss off Sir'? Sir, you are just afraid of the truth!"
Lech Kaczyński (getting into his car): "Piss off, old man!"
Passerby (to a journalist): "How can someone respond like that: 'Piss off Sir'? I asked the guy politely" (video).

Jarosław Kaczyński on German-Polish relations: "All I know about Germany is the toilets in Frankfurt Airport, and that is enough anyway" (source).

Jarosław Kaczyński: "I am not an enthusiast of a young person sitting in front of a computer, watching video clips and pornography while sipping a bottle of beer and voting when he feels like it" (source).

Jarosław Kaczyński (to Donald Tusk [allegedly]): "To kill you for me would be like spitting on you" (source).

Leszek Miller: "The Kaczyński brothers are not only from the same party but from the same egg" (source).

Andrzej Lepper (on allegations of sexual misconduct): "How can you rape a prostitute?" (source).

Andrzej Lepper: "I see myself as a positive dictator" (source).