Mr Sikorski Goes to Washington

Dziennik reports that Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski will meet Condoleezza Rice in Washington today to talk about the missile defence and "NATO expansion." More importantly, the paper says that Sikorski will chat with presidential hopefuls John McCain and Barack Obama by phone. Meanwhile, Condi will immediately go to Prague hoping to seal the deal with the Czechs on her way to Sofia and Tbilisi in a trip that begins this week. On Friday, Prime Minister Tusk rejected the latest US offer of additional military and financial support to host the planned missile defence shield in talks with Vice President Cheney.

In Warsaw, President Kaczyński and Prime Minister Tusk are at opposite ends on how to move forward on the impasse. According to the Dziennik article, someone close to the prime minister's office said "The atmosphere was fatal. On one side was the president with his people and on the other side was the prime minister confronted with his subordinates. 'Mr. President, you should have more confidence in the minister of foreign affairs' was stated after Kaczyński criticized Sikorski. 'He is not my minister of foreign affairs,' responded the president."

According to Republican adviser and historian Edward Lutwak, "the government of the Republic of Poland by rejecting the US offer forfeited a valuable partner that would protect it against Russia. It is an elementary mistake."

Such talk will certainly convince Moscow that the shield is directed towards them, an even more elementary mistake.

***

I am disappointed with reporting by AFP on the missile defense story and its interpretation of polling figures:

Polish opposition to hosting part of a US missile defence shield in the former communist country is weakening, according to the latest poll published on Saturday. Back at the end of February a survey suggested that 52 percent of Poles opposed the plans, however this new study -- a little over three months later -- found that only 46 percent disapproved. The project, which would see 10 interceptor missiles based in Poland and a radar facility in the neighboring Czech Republic, was supported by 42 percent of people in the poll, published by the Gazeta Wyborcza daily. Only 33 percent backed the idea back in February's survey...

...Although Russia was initially strongly opposed to having the missile shield on its doorstep, the Kremlin has softened its line in recent months and appears to be focusing on getting security guarantees.

Now this is what Dziennik reports:

46 percent of Poles do not want the U.S. anti-missile shield. The majority of us are afraid that the Americans will not modernize our troops and the installation would deteriorate relations with Russia. Nearly three-quarters surveyed by PBS believe that [Poland] should take care of contacts with the European Union above America. 42% of Poles are for the shield and 42% [sic] are against it. 68% do not believe that the United States will equip our army. The survey shows that Poles believe that the shield would deteriorate our position in the world. Poles are also more afraid that the U.S. missile defence shield will deteriorate relations with Russia than become the target of a terrorist attack. In addition, only 16% of Poles consider that we should put contacts with the US in the first place. Most important should be good relations with the European Union and Russia.

It appears that Dziennik made a typo by writing in the first paragraph that 46% were against, then in the second that 42% were against. But this may be more excusable than AFP's sloppy reporting.

First, AFP describes Poland as a former communist country. Would they run a story on South Africa and mention its former colonial status? Secondly, they write that only 46% are against the shield. If anything, public opinion is divided on the issue nearly fifty-fifty. Third, they are stating that public opinion for the MD has improved based on this latest PBS poll to a Gazeta Wyborcza poll taken in February. They also fail to mention that a CBOS poll taken earlier this month indicates that public opinion against the missile shield is at 60%. Fourth, no comment on the idea that Russia is softening its position on MD in Poland. I am at a loss where they came up with that one.

I guess that the devil is in the details, and that 60% statistics are made up on the spot 35% of the time.